ResearchResearch paperInterpretability1 source · Oct 19, 2026

Uncertainty-Gated SHAP-Dirichlet Refinement for MRI-Based Depression Classification

Structural MRI-based classification of major depressive disorder (MDD) remains challenging due to subtle, heterogeneous anatomical changes.

Key points

  • We propose uncertainty-gated SHAP-Dirichlet refinement, a post-hoc reliability layer that improves predictions without retraining the classifier.
  • The method retrieves similar labeled SHAP explanations, constructs Dirichlet class evidence, and selectively refines uncertain predictions through probabilistic fusion, while allowing unreliable cases to be deferred for expert review.
  • We evaluate five classifiers on 504 SRPBS subjects (252 controls and 252 MDD patients) using 159 anatomical features and repeated nested cross-validation.
  • These findings support selective explanation-guided refinement as a practical approach to improving prediction reliability and facilitating expert triage in MDD classification.

Sources (1)

  • [1]Uncertainty-Gated SHAP-Dirichlet Refinement for MRI-Based Depression Classification
    arXiv (AI, ML, NLP, CV, robotics, multi-agent) · Oct 19, 01:25 AM
    Structural MRI-based classification of major depressive disorder (MDD) remains challenging due to subtle, heterogeneous anatomical changes.
    We propose uncertainty-gated SHAP-Dirichlet refinement, a post-hoc reliability layer that improves predictions without retraining the classifier.

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