ResearchResearch paperLarge Language Models · Training & Scaling1 source · Oct 19, 2026

Teacher Supervision, Fixed Representations and Calibration: Exact Risk Calculations for Candidate-Scoring Decision Models

Candidate-scoring decision models return a probability distribution over a presented set of answers.

Key points

  • Public documentation of one such system, Jev, and of an open counterpart, JevAny, describes three training ingredients that determine what these probabilities estimate: soft targets from larger models, a frozen pretrained backbone and temperature calibration.
  • We analyze each ingredient in Gaussian surrogates where the finite-sample risk can be computed exactly.
  • In a probit model the exact recalibration map is a temperature scaling, which removes all excess risk only when the teacher's coefficient has the correct direction and otherwise leaves a residual that calibration diagnostics do not detect.
  • Pretrained representations reduce the labeled data required and calibration corrects the scale of the probabilities, but neither corrects a biased teacher, so the probabilities have to be checked against realized outcomes.

Sources (1)

Extractive summary: sentences quoted from the sources.

Before this

  1. Oct 18, 2026P(Yes): 15$\times$ Improvements via Test-Time Scaling of Decision Models
  2. Oct 18, 2026System X: An LLM Decision Model That Replies from Its Own KV Cache
  3. Oct 18, 2026BerriAI/litellm v1.106.0
  4. Oct 17, 202620 Jev Alternatives: The Decision Models Taking On TypeSafe in 2026
  5. Oct 17, 2026DKnown-Jev: Fine-Tuning and Evaluation of a JEV-Style Model for Tasks Involving Normative Knowledge
  6. Oct 17, 2026Good Judgment, Bad Advice: Decision-Model Controllers Raise Agent Cost Without Improving Success

Related