ResearchResearch paperReinforcement Learning · Large Language Models1 source · Oct 12, 2026

Beyond Successful Play: Diagnosing Opponent Modeling in Large Language Models

We introduce a benchmark and diagnostic framework for repeated hide-and-seek against algorithmic opponents with explicitly defined recursive belief updates.

Key points

  • Language-model agents are expected to adapt to others whose behavior changes through interaction.
  • Their ground-truth beliefs and action probabilities let us distinguish adaptive play, action prediction, and belief tracking through live interaction, fixed-history evaluation, and controlled information interventions.
  • With structured elicitation and behavioral supervised fine-tuning (SFT), we find improved play in several tested settings, but diagnostics reveal limitations in opponent prediction and belief tracking.
  • We test whether supervising opponent action probabilities can address this predictive deficit in Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct.

Sources (1)

  • [1]Beyond Successful Play: Diagnosing Opponent Modeling in Large Language Models
    arXiv (AI, ML, NLP, CV, robotics, multi-agent) · Oct 12, 07:08 PM
    We introduce a benchmark and diagnostic framework for repeated hide-and-seek against algorithmic opponents with explicitly defined recursive belief updates.
    Language-model agents are expected to adapt to others whose behavior changes through interaction.

Extractive summary: sentences quoted from the sources.

Before this

  1. Oct 12, 2026Hashrope: A Persistent Data Structure for Mechanisms of LLM Context Management
  2. Oct 12, 2026Autoregressive Decoding as a Martingale: Characterizing the Stochastic Dynamics of LLM Generation
  3. Oct 12, 2026Spectral-Driven Adaptive-Rank Optimizer for Large Language Model Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards
  4. Oct 11, 2026WUSPruner: Second-Moment-Optimal Transforms for Structured Pruning
  5. Oct 11, 2026Fewer Bits, More Tries: Recovering Capability Under Memory Constraints
  6. Oct 10, 2026FidelityQ: Preserving Predictive Fidelity in Ultra-Low-Bit Language Model Quantization

Related