ResearchResearch paperLarge Language Models · Efficiency & Inference · Interpretability1 source · Oct 13, 2026

Rarity Determines Minimax Rates of Semantic Entropy From Weak Pairwise Judgments With a Known Channel

The semantic entropy of a language model is the entropy of the meanings of its sampled answers.

Key points

  • Given the meanings of $n$ answers, a known channel declares each pair equivalent independently, with probability $q+Δ$ within a meaning and $q$ across meanings.
  • For a weak judge, with $nΔ^2\to0$, the global minimax rate is set by distributions near a vertex of the simplex and overstates the difficulty elsewhere.
  • We show that the difficulty is set by how many meanings can be rare.
  • The case $s=K-1$ gives the global rate $N^{-1/(K-1)}$ and the consistency threshold: with $Δ=n^{-γ}$ the entropy is uniformly consistently estimable exactly when $γ<K/(2K-2)$.

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