ResearchResearch paperEfficiency & Inference1 source · Oct 21, 2026

Understanding Target Probability Reuse in Speculative Decoding

Speculative decoding uses a target model to verify a tree of draft tokens in parallel.

Key points

  • We study whether the resulting next-token distributions can help select the next tree.
  • For unrestricted target models, we show that guaranteed exact reuse requires a distribution computed at the next round's complete context.
  • Across six targets, we find that reranking first-token branches with a separately computed distribution at the current context improves expected acceptance over draft ranking, especially with small tree budgets.
  • Our findings show that making target probabilities available before tree allocation can improve the efficiency of speculative decoding.

Sources (1)

Extractive summary: sentences quoted from the sources.

Before this

  1. Oct 21, 2026Target Regeneration Shrinks the Gains of Draft-Training Objectives in Speculative Decoding
  2. Oct 21, 2026Think Harder Where It Matters: Item-Level Adaptive Recursion for Sequential Recommendation
  3. Oct 20, 2026Beyond the Point Mass: Acceptance-Derived Weights and Distributional Losses for Speculative Decoding
  4. Oct 20, 2026[AINews] DeepSeek DeepInfer: Open Source SOTA Inference running 155T toks/day/cluster making $22m/day at ~80% margin for a 81 day payback
  5. Oct 20, 2026Specter: Fast MoE Inference via Quantization-Enabled Multi-Step Speculative Offloading
  6. Oct 20, 2026RoboCasa-Shift: Stage-Aware Robustness Evaluation of Vision-Language-Action Policies in Long-Horizon Household Manipulation

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