AnalysisOpinion / analysisReinforcement Learning · Safety & Alignment · Large Language Models1 source · Oct 15, 2026

I put a conformal risk control gate between an LLM agent and its write actions on tau-bench. The bound held. The gate didn't beat asking every time [R]

The thresholds come from conformal risk control: you pick an alpha, and the bound targets the share of conversations that execute a wrong write without asking.

Proof1 community thread

Key points

  • My agent said it was 100% sure.
  • So I built gate-calibrated: a barrier between a tool-using agent and the environment.
  • Before any action that writes (modify an order, change a payment method), the gate computes two confidence signals, the model's own probability estimate and the agreement of k resampled next actions, maps them to a calibrated probability of success, and compares it to a threshold.
  • tradeoff curve: wrong writes executed vs approvals requested

Sources (1)

Extractive summary: sentences quoted from the sources.

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