ResearchResearch paperLarge Language Models · Reinforcement Learning1 source · Oct 16, 2026

Process Reward Modeling with Reliability- and Conservatism-Aware Bayesian Belief

Process Reward Models (PRMs) play a central role in test-time scaling for large language model (LLM) reasoning.

Key points

  • However, PRMs may provide inaccurate process rewards for test-time scaling, which we identify as arising from two sources of uncertainty: (1) PRM uncertainty that arises from insufficient supervision data and imperfect PRM training; and (2) policy uncertainty that results from the mismatch between the policy to collect supervision data and the policy for test-time scaling, leading to systematic reward overestimation.
  • To bridge this gap, we propose BayesianPRM, which treats the process reward as a random variable within a reward hypothesis space and maintains a Bayesian belief over it.
  • These two updates yield a reliability- and conservatism-aware Bayesian belief, whose expectation determines the process reward.
  • Experiments on multimodal reasoning benchmarks indicate that BayesianPRM consistently yields more accurate process reward estimates while enhancing test-time scaling performance.

Sources (1)

  • [1]Process Reward Modeling with Reliability- and Conservatism-Aware Bayesian Belief
    arXiv (AI, ML, NLP, CV, robotics, multi-agent) · Oct 16, 09:54 AM
    Process Reward Models (PRMs) play a central role in test-time scaling for large language model (LLM) reasoning.
    However, PRMs may provide inaccurate process rewards for test-time scaling, which we identify as arising from two sources of uncertainty: (1) PRM uncertainty that arises from insufficient supervision data and imperfect PRM training; and (2) policy uncertainty that results from the mismatch between the policy to collect supervision data and the policy for test-time scaling, leading to systematic re

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