ResearchResearch paperEvaluation & Benchmarks · Business, Funding & Industry · Interpretability1 source · Oct 17, 2026

Conditional Weight of Evidence for Gradient-Boosted Credit Models: Estimation, Additivity and Its Relation to Adverse Action Reasons

Traditional weight of evidence assigns a credit characteristic a value based on its association with default across a population.

Key points

  • We study conditional weight of evidence for this purpose.
  • We develop estimators using gradient-boosted trees and evaluate their accuracy in a bureau-style simulation.
  • An application to FICO HELOC data illustrates estimation when the population evidence is unknown.
  • Conditional weight of evidence provides an applicant-specific interpretation of the information in a credit characteristic; its population summary, a conditional information value, splits the joint information in the record across blocks when averaged over orderings.

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